Forex Market Pulse From QE2 To G20 Summit

Last week's US Federal Reserve announced an additional $600 billion in asset purchases to support the economy, but as discussed earlier, with the size and scope of the move already priced in, the dollar has managed to stabilize over the past few days, particularly against the euro. Volatility in the currency markets have become a focal point of foreign policy, with many nations seen as deliberately weakening their currencies to give their exporters a competitive advantage.

G20 Summit: As G20 heads of state meet outside Seoul South Korea from November 12-14 where President Obama is likely to be told that the Fed action was an effort to weaken the dollar to boost exports, analysts feel that most global leaders have their work cut out for on the one hand the Germans and the Chinese are complaining about the Fed's quantitative easing while the US, Canadians, Europeans are all complaining about under valued Asian currencies on the other. World Bank President Zoellich meanwhile thinks its a great time establish a new global currency agreement based to some extent on gold. The French want to orchestrate a new global accord during their reign as G20 chairman in 2011. Although President Obama is likely to stress the need for Asia, led by China, to appreciate their currencies, analysts believe that Obama will have the advantage of history over the past four decades where the US readily comes across as more of a free trading entity than the newly developed nations from which he will be receiving criticism.


Correlating Currencies and Inflation: Although the Fed appears to have succeeded in stabilizing market implied inflation expectations higher, this has been accompanied by a markedly weaker US dollar in recent times. Faced with a strong disinflationary trend, it seems that the Fed would want to keep inflationary expectations anchored at higher levels, but there are concerns that once deflationary expectations get entrenched, consumers postpone their consumption plans while businesses refrain from investing. Moreover, given the side-effect of the weaker dollar, the Fed’s strategy has run into international resistance with the G20 statement noting “advanced economies with reserve currencies” promoting excessively volatile capital flows. Meanwhile analysts at BNP Paribas believe that with an arguably stretched short USD position prone to covering, the appropriate strategy would be to shift to funding long Asian FX plays in GBP instead of the USD.

ETFs Investment Options For The US Dollar include:

PowerShares DB USD Index (UDN): The Index is a rules-based index composed solely of short USDX futures contracts. The USDX futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being short the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

Expense Ratio: 0.40%

PowerShares DB USD Index Bullish (UUP): The Index is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX futures contracts. The USDX futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

Expense Ratio: 0.50%


EUR: The euro weakened for a second day as concern that governments in the region will struggle to pay their debt increased before Ireland opens its books to European Union officials. Analysts at Capital Markets believe that the problems in Europe are starting to rear their ugly head again and some feel this could be just the tip of the iceberg for the euro. The euro fell 0.9 percent to $1.3905 in New York from $1.4032 on Nov. 5. It reached $1.4282 on Nov. 4, the highest since Jan. 20. It dropped as much as 1.2 percent versus Japan’s yen, matching the drop on Oct. 29, before trading at 112.85 yen, down 1 percent from 114.03 on Nov. 5.


EUR Data: Economic sentiment in the Eurozone surprised analysts in October by rising while consumer sentiment was steady at its highest level since January 2008. Industrial orders beat expectations in August with robust gains of 5.3% m/m and 24.4% y/y. The upward spike was led by capital goods that are often a barometer for rising overall orders in the coming months.



Euro ETFs To Watch Out For:

Rydex CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust (FXE): The EUR/USD exchange rate is a foreign exchange spot rate that measures the relative values of two currencies, the euro and the U.S. dollar.

FXE Tracks: Euro Index. Expense Ratio: 0.40%

Short Euro ETFs

ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO): ProShares UltraShort Euro seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the U.S. Dollar price of the Euro.

EUO Tracks: Euro (-200%) Index. Expense Ratio: 0.95%

Market Vectors-Double Short Euro ETN (DRR): As the Index is two-times leveraged, for every 1% weakening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the level of the Index will generally increase by 2%, while for every 1% strengthening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the Index will generally decrease by 2%.

DRR Tracks: Double Short Euro Index. Expense Ratio: 0.65%

Long Euro ETFs

ProShares Ultra Euro (ULE): ProShares Ultra Euro seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the U.S. Dollar price of the Euro.

ULE Tracks: Euro (200%) Index. Expense Ratio: 0.95%

Market Vectors-Double Long Euro ETN (URR): As the Index is two-times leveraged, for every 1% strengthening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the level of the Index will generally increase by 2%, while for every 1% weakening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the Index will generally decrease by 2%.

URR Tracks: Double Long Euro Index. Expense Ratio: 0.65%


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Forex Market Pulse: Euro's Surge, QE2, And the Next Direction of USD

By world market pulse team on November 03,2010

Most of the world currency markets are brimming with speculation over US Congress election results and QE2 grabbing the most attention. While the US dollar was unable to sustain its gains from the previous session Thursday morning, coming under pressure ahead of the latest word on the US jobs market, the euro on the other hand snapped back against the dollar on Thursday, as better-than-forecast economic data from the Euro zone raised speculation that central bankers in Brussels will begin to normalize interest rates rather than ease further. The mid-term election results are likely to be overshadowed by the FOMC where speculation that the Fed will announce USD500bn of asset purchases Wednesday has intensified, but analysts at BNP Paribas believe that with investors increasingly expecting a month-by-month approach to the implementation, a more gradual approach would be consistent with the G20 meeting, where negotiations appear to be ongoing.

Next direction of USD?
USD: The dollar has been unable to sustain its gains from the previous session coming under modest pressure ahead of the latest word on the US jobs market. The Fed meets today, November 3, and is reportedly set to embark on a series of gradual asset purchases totaling a few "hundred billion" dollars. In 2009, the Fed snapped up around $2 trillion in an effort to spur the economy. Still, currency experts feel that the dollar is relatively stable amid growing speculation that the size and scope of the Federal Reserve's anticipated bond purchase program is likely to be smaller than its first round of quantitative easing. Certain analysts and economists believe QE2 may contribute, at the cost of bringing down the USD almost 20% over a period of time, to triggering US exports and helping the economy etc. even though it will cause a disaster to the world currency status of the USD. While this may be gradual, the scene does not look very likely. We believe the USD may remain strong.

US Data Analysis: Initial US jobless claims fell to 434,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 455,000. The decrease surprised economists, who had expected claims to edge up to 458,000 from the 452,000 originally reported for the previous week. While there were no special factors cited for the decline in claims, analysts at Deutsche Bank are hesitant to read too much into the data, and the four-week moving average is still consistent with job growth of around 100k per month. Continuing claims registered a more robust decline of 122k to 4356k for the week of October 16, the lowest since November 22, 2008.

Correlating Currencies and Inflation: Although the Fed appears to have succeeded in stabilizing market implied inflation expectations higher, this has been accompanied by a markedly weaker US dollar in recent times. Faced with a strong disinflationary trend, it seems that the Fed would want to keep inflationary expectations anchored at higher levels, but there are concerns that once deflationary expectations get entrenched, consumers postpone their consumption plans while businesses refrain from investing. Moreover, given the side-effect of the weaker dollar, the Fed’s strategy has run into international resistance with the G20 statement noting “advanced economies with reserve currencies” promoting excessively volatile capital flows.

Meanwhile analysts at BNP Paribas believe that with an arguably stretched short USD position prone to covering, the appropriate strategy would be to shift to funding long Asian FX plays in GBP instead of the USD.

ETFs Investment Options For The US Dollar include:

PowerShares DB USD Index (UDN): The Index is a rules-based index composed solely of short USDX futures contracts. The USDX futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being short the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

Expense Ratio: 0.40%

PowerShares DB USD Index Bullish (UUP): The Index is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX futures contracts. The USDX futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

Expense Ratio: 0.50%

EUR: The euro, meanwhile, snapped back against the dollar after better than forecast economic data from the Eurozone raised speculation that central bankers in Brussels will begin to normalize interest rates rather than ease further. Economic confidence in the 16 countries that use the euro rose to its highest level in nearly three years during October, the European Commission said on Thursday. The euro rose to $1.3910 versus the greenback, paring most of this week's losses. With the advance, the euro moved back towards a recent 8-month high near $1.4150.

EUR Data Analysis: The European Central Bank lowered interest rates to a record low one percent during the throes of the worst recession in decades, but has resisted additional rate cuts despite a sluggish economy. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have meanwhile suggested that the euro is still in a correction mode and may remain so while the EU summit is in session. Good support entered yesterday only at 1.3610.

Euro ETFs To Watch Out For:

Rydex CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust (FXE): The EUR/USD exchange rate is a foreign exchange spot rate that measures the relative values of two currencies, the euro and the U.S. dollar.

FXE Tracks: Euro Index. Expense Ratio: 0.40%

Short Euro ETFs

ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO): ProShares UltraShort Euro seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the U.S. Dollar price of the Euro.

EUO Tracks: Euro (-200%) Index. Expense Ratio: 0.95%

Market Vectors-Double Short Euro ETN (DRR): As the Index is two-times leveraged, for every 1% weakening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the level of the Index will generally increase by 2%, while for every 1% strengthening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the Index will generally decrease by 2%.

DRR Tracks: Double Short Euro Index. Expense Ratio: 0.65%

Long Euro ETFs

ProShares Ultra Euro (ULE): ProShares Ultra Euro seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the U.S. Dollar price of the Euro.

ULE Tracks: Euro (200%) Index. Expense Ratio: 0.95%

Market Vectors-Double Long Euro ETN (URR): As the Index is two-times leveraged, for every 1% strengthening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the level of the Index will generally increase by 2%, while for every 1% weakening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the Index will generally decrease by 2%.

URR Tracks: Double Long Euro Index. Expense Ratio: 0.65%

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Forex Market Pulse: Tracing RBA Rate Hike and AUD Upside

By world market pulse team on November 03,2010

As the world markets including the currency markets eagerly await the Fed's decision on further quantitative easing, the Australia’s central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates yesterday fueling optimism in the global economic recovery. As a result the Australian dollar traded at its highest levels against the US dollar since 1982.

The RBA rate hike and hawkish statement gives some further upside potential for the AUD. Indeed, the RBA hiked by 25bps to 4.75%, which is consistent with the continued strong domestic data coming from Australia. RBA governor Stevens gave the impression that this hike is pre-emptive with modest inflation trends probably about to end.

Meanwhile analysts at BNP Paribas feel that AUD will stay supported from the positive readings of Chinese data. The AUD has been correlated to the Chinese PMI, which has rebounded strongly over the past couple of months, and analysts maintain their bullish AUD positions looking for AUDUSD to sustain a move above parity targeting the 1.02 area. BNP Paribas experts also expect AUDNZD to continue to push higher.

AUDUSD Outlook

AUDUSD gained over a full cent to trade just under parity after the RBA surprised by delivering a 25 bps rate hike to 4.75%. In explanation for the hike, the RBA cited tight labor markets, a likely end to the recent moderation in inflation and, in an echo of Governor Stevens' comments from last month, the large expansionary shock from the high terms of trade. It also said that fears of a larger than expected slowing in Chinese growth have lessened recently.

Yesterday’s rate increases by the Australian and Indian central banks have served to highlight the fact that the Fed is now the only major central bank looking at further easing in the short-term.

Analysts at BNP Paribas have however questioned whether the move will have legs ahead of FOMC's final decision, as Investors are unlikely to add further to AUD risk. Fearing that Fed's decision may just run RBA hike out of steam, as another test of parity analysts expect AUD to struggle to break much beyond the previous highs of 1.0003 – at least until FOMC is out of the way.

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World Market Forex Pulse: Exploring Dollar's Drop And Euro's Surge

By world market pulse team on October 29,2010


Most of the world currency markets is brimming with activity as speculation over QE2 grabbing most attention. While the US dollar was unable to sustain its gains from the previous session Thursday morning coming under pressure ahead of the latest word on the US jobs market, the euro on the other hand snapped back against the dollar on Thursday, as better-than-forecast economic data from the Euro zone raised speculation that central bankers in Brussels will begin to normalize interest rates rather than ease further.

USD: The dollar has been unable to sustain its gains from the previous session coming under modest pressure ahead of the latest word on the US jobs market. The Fed meets on November 3 and is reportedly set to embark on a series of gradual asset purchases totaling a few hundred billion dollars. In 2009, the Fed snapped up around $2 trillion in an effort to spur the economy. Still currency experts feel that the dollar is relatively stable amid growing speculation that the size and scope of the Federal Reserve's anticipated bond purchase program is likely to be smaller than its first round of quantitative easing.

US Data Analysis: Initial US jobless claims fell to 434,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 455,000. The decrease surprised economists, who had expected claims to edge up to 458,000 from the 452,000 originally reported for the previous week. While there were no special factors cited for the decline in claims, analysts at Deutsche Bank are hesitant to read too much into the data, and the four-week moving average is still consistent with job growth of around 100k per month. Continuing claims registered a more robust decline of 122k to 4356k for the week of October 16, the lowest since November 22, 2008.


EUR: The euro meanwhile snapped back against the dollar after better than forecast economic data from the Euro zone raised speculation that central bankers in Brussels will begin to normalize interest rates rather than ease further. Economic confidence in the 16 countries that use the euro rose to its highest level in nearly three years during October, the European Commission said on Thursday. The euro rose to $1.3910 versus the greenback, paring most of this week's losses. With the advance, the euro moved back towards a recent 8-month high near $1.4150.


EUR Data Analysis: The European Central Bank lowered interest rates to a record low one percent during the throes of the worst recession in decades, but has resisted additional rate cuts despite a sluggish economy. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have meanwhile suggested that the euro is still in a correction mode and may remain so while the EU summit is in session. Good support enters today only at 1.3610.



Euro ETFs To Watch Out For:

Rydex CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust (FXE): The EUR/USD exchange rate is a foreign exchange spot rate that measures the relative values of two currencies, the euro and the U.S. dollar.

FXE Tracks: Euro Index. Expense Ratio: 0.40%

Short Euro ETFs

ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO): ProShares UltraShort Euro seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the U.S. Dollar price of the Euro.

EUO Tracks: Euro (-200%) Index. Expense Ratio: 0.95%

Market Vectors-Double Short Euro ETN (DRR): As the Index is two-times leveraged, for every 1% weakening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the level of the Index will generally increase by 2%, while for every 1% strengthening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the Index will generally decrease by 2%.

DRR Tracks: Double Short Euro Index. Expense Ratio: 0.65%

Long Euro ETFs

ProShares Ultra Euro (ULE): ProShares Ultra Euro seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the U.S. Dollar price of the Euro.

ULE Tracks: Euro (200%) Index. Expense Ratio: 0.95%

Market Vectors-Double Long Euro ETN (URR): As the Index is two-times leveraged, for every 1% strengthening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the level of the Index will generally increase by 2%, while for every 1% weakening of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, the Index will generally decrease by 2%.

URR Tracks: Double Long Euro Index. Expense Ratio: 0.65%

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World Market Pulse Forex Update: Measured QE2 And Beyond

By world market pulse team on October 28,2010

Most of the world currency markets is brimming with activity as speculation over QE2, G20, capital controls and inflation continues to be in the limelight today with the BOE and the FED grabbing most attention. Meanwhile Asian news suggesting currency reserves are also on the rise with the EU Head of State meeting where the German Chancellor is expected taking a non-compromising position while the BOJ bringing its policy meeting forward. Markets are generally softer, with the USD biased for strength.

There is also a market sentiment suggesting that China and the US are close to an agreement on current account imbalances pushing markets to curtail their expectation for QE2 as forex experts feel that the logic being that a softening in China’s stance would ease pressure on the US to implement QE2. Analysts at BNP Paribas meanwhile expect USD range trading today, but with US bonds yields staying bid for now USDJPY and EURJPY should rally, while EURUSD’s upside should be limited by 1.3920. GBPUSD remains a clear sell near 1.5800 after Posen's suggesting that QE might come too late and might be not enough.

EUR-USD: The EUR has weakened since yesterdays close, but is still trading within its three-week 1.3698 to 1.4159 range. A break of this range should foreshadow the next move. Today the focus is on the USD rally driven by scaled back expectations of QE. Analysts at Scotia Capital have suggested that this will prove temporary and that the EUR will still face upward pressure into year-end on the back of a weak USD. However, for now the risk is that the market is extremely short the USD and shift in sentiment could see downside pressure on EUR as position squaring takes over.



USD- CAD: CAD is under performing today, having lost 0.4% against the USD and 0.2% against EUR. USDCAD is within a hundred points of the clustering of its 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages (1.0314, 1.0345 and 1.0344, respectively) and the year-to-date average trading level of 1.0345. All in all, USDCAD remains firmly within its year-to-date range, unable to break decidedly on either side of it. The main driver of USDCAD continues to be QE in the US and the odds of a currency agreement. With the PBoC hiking rates ahead of key data releases on Thursday, these odds improved. This thematic has already taken over. USDCAD around 1.0350 continues to offer opportunities to go short.


Asian Currencies: Asian currencies have come in firmer dragging G-10 currencies against the USD with it. Korea doubling its current account surplus from August to September and China allowing USDRMB to fix higher for the 4th consecutive day will bring the theme of Asian currency reserves and the related allocation issues back to the market. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to downgrade its forecasts for the country's economic growth and prices at its policy meeting today amid signs that the return of the economy to a path of sustainable expansion will be delayed due to deflation.

AUD-USD: AUD is under performing having lost 1.3% against the USD and 1.1% against EUR. A softer than expected CPI release (coming in at 0.7% q/q and 2.8% y/y) has dampened the expectations for further interest rate increases and weighed on AUD. In some ways, the CPI release has simply offset the positive impact the currency and interest rate outlook received with the above consensus PPI release earlier this week. Governor Stevens recently indicated that monetary policy would have to take into account one off shocks to terms of trade on inflation over and above the regular cyclical factors.

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World Market Pulse Forex Update: Analyzing Sterling’s GDP Boost

By world market pulse team on October 27,2010

The GBP received a significant boost as it posted its biggest one day gain against a basket of currencies in 3 months after the surprise rise in UK Q3 GDP to 0.8% in addition to a ratings upgrade from Standard and Poors to a “stable” outlook bringing them into line with their agency peers, Fitch and Moody.

An Overview Of UK GDP Figures: U.K. GDP came in stronger than expected, up 0.8% q/q and 2.8% y/y in Q3, compared to the consensus forecasts for 0.4% and 2.4% respectively. This was the highest annual growth rate since Q3 of 2007. Service sector growth came in surprisingly strong, up 0.6% q/q, same as in Q2, while industrial production growth was 0.6%, after 1.0% in Q2. Construction sector output rose 4.0% q/q, after rising 9.5% in Q2, when it rebounded after weather related weakness in Q1 of 2010.

Meanwhile according to analysts at BNP Paribas, the sterling remains a sell despite the better UK Q3 GDP. We base our projection on weak money supply and credit indications, the sharp decline of savings seen over the past three quarters and weakening cyclical conditions coming on the back of fading global demand.

GBP-USD Outlook: GBPUSD rebound on stronger GDP data expected to be short lived providing a renewed buying opportunity. Although The UK GDP has come in much stronger than expected with growth the strength has been driven purely by the construction sector which rose 4.0% q/q in Q3, up 11.0% y/y, the highest reading since Q1 1998. According to BNP Paribas analysts, sterling gains following the UK GDP data are likely to be short lived providing renewed a medium term selling opportunity. GBPUSD is now approaching the 1.5875 high seen last week. A break above here could see sterling recovery back towards the 1.60/1.61 peaks seen over the past couple of months.



Britain Economic Overview: PM David Cameron is to strongly oppose demands from Brussels for significant increases in Britain's contribution to the EU budget and instead call for spending cuts when EU leaders meet in Brussels tomorrow. While the summit is expected to be dominated by Germany's demands for treaty changes to discipline states UK has made it clear he will not accept that the EU's budget should increase by 6 per cent at a time when national governments are paring back spending. Meanwhile leading indicators in the UK economy, along with the housing market have turned sharply lower suggesting that quantitative easing is still likely to be on the agenda, but likely to be delayed until the beginning of 2011.

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World Market Pulse Forex Update: Analyzing The G20 Sound Bites

By world market pulse team on October 25,2010

World currency markets have been largely sluggish in the past week. As the November date of the FOMC draws ever nearer, there has been a wait and watch situation developing especially about the level of any stimulus especially in light of some of US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s recent comments with respect to the major currency pairs.

Meanwhile the market sentiment turned out to be correct regarding the G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in South Korea as the meet failed to achieve anything of note apart from a few sound bites about monitoring the situation, and urging countries not to use their currencies as weapons of devaluation. Although the G20 meet made all the sound notes, analysts feel that it is unlikely to reverse the overall pressure on the US dollar as it continues to remain under pressure.

USD And Q3 GDP:

After the G20 meet failed to set any market tone, all eyes are now focussed on the coming week which can is a critical week for both the dollar as well as the pound as traders are keeping a close watch over the release of Q3 GDP figures for evidence of economic deterioration and the increased likelihood of further stimulus. Meanwhile the US dollar is continuing to show signs of a possible rebound as it continues to hold above key trend line support. The release of Q3 GDP on Friday where a figure of 2.2% is expected will in all likelihood be a key indicator of what sort of measures the Fed may embark on at the conclusion of its next meeting on November 3rd.

GBP: The pound is also set for a key week with the release on Tuesday of Q3 GDP where expectations are for a slip back to a figure of 0.4% which would be a shot in the arm for the dovish camp in the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) for a further round of quantitative easing (QE) into the UK economy, and send the pound lower. The pound is currently trading near trend line support at 77.80 from its all-time lows on its trade weighted index at 73.05, set in early 2009. A break below this level could well target further sterling weakness in the near term. A break of this trend line could well target further sterling weakness towards this years low’s at 76.10.


World Market Pulse Euro Update: Traders are likely to remain in a Euro Bullish mode despite the firming up of the US dollar amid Improved Home Builder Confidence even as EUR together with Scandinavian currencies under performed the rest of G10 at the start of the week after investors sought to take profit on their USD-short positions. EU’s Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn has meanwhile indicated that the currencies will feature prominently on the agenda after Eurogroup’s Chairman Juncker had said that there has been too much volatility between the main global currencies.

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